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But before we get to the predictions, I want you to turn back your memories 12 months.
It had a colorful, original idea with heart, but also a lot of real-world resonance.
The leading man already had three acting nods; the baddie was played by a two-time winner.
It seemed to all the world like a solid awards contender.
One year later, the movie has largely faded from memory.
The point is,this early in the season, its often the case that nobody really knows anything.
Indeed, thats what makes it fun.
Weve got six months to pick these movies apart, but right now?
(This guy is still in the lead.
In most Oscar categories, we have decades of historical knowledge about Oscar tastes and traditions.
Still, a prediction isnt as hard as it might seem.
Are you only going to be allowed to be nominated in one or the other?
If so, who makes the call, and how?
Will there be a box-office cutoff (potentially excluding smaller genre films likeHereditary)?
And is popular an absolute quality, or a relative one?
(Wont You Be My Neighboris currently the 12th-highest grossing documentary of all time.
Can it get in?)
But theres still room for newcomers.
Doesthe positive Venice receptionfor Yorgos Lanthimoss punky period pieceThe Favouriteportend the Academy finally warming to the chilly Greek auteur?
And can you believe that Spike Lee has never been nominated for Best Director before?
inA Star Is Born, and I could see a lifetime-achievement narrative emerging for the never-nominated actor.
Timothee Chalamets meth-addict teen inBeautiful Boyseems a solid bet to show up here as well.
Otherwise, this category feels wide open.
Its also about the Tweets we send along the way.
Below, a selection of discussion topics to anticipate over the next few months.
(Update:It was!)
Does anyone even want to win it?
More on that in a bit.)
This new blood has made recent Best Picture races refreshingly unpredictable will the trend continue?
Whos next, and in our post-Moonves moment, will it matter?
Controversy watch:How will the false rape accusation inBeale Streetplay in a post-#MeToo atmosphere?
Will Belgian foreign-language contenderGirlface heat for casting a cis male to play a trans ballerina?
(Critics at Cannes gave it a pass thanks to the demands of the role.)
And wastheFirst Manflag fracasa one-weekend wonder, or something more lasting?
Expect that debate to ramp up even more this year.
CanBlack Pantherovercome the Academys disdain for all things Marvel?
Could Toni Collette contend in Best Actress even though she was in a horror movie?
Potential category confusion:In a two-hander likeBeautiful Boy, who runs in lead and who runs in supporting?
A big one: If Supporting Actress looks weak, couldA Star Is Borntry to sneak Gaga in?
(His co-star Dick van Dyke could as well.
)Widows Cynthia Erivo could get it with Best Supporting Actress.
Lady Gaga would be halfway there with a win in Best Actress or Best Song.
But shes practically a Barrymore compared to Yalitza Aparicio, the unknown at the center ofRoma.
Will voters embrace these new faces?
Will Lutz get a Best Supporting Actor campaign?
Or will Swinton unmask herself for her own awards bid?
Can Meryl score a nomination for doing the least?Shes barely inMamma Mia!
Here We Go Again, and her role inMary Poppins Returnsis still a mystery.
Is she daring the Academy to nominate her?
(The existence of the Lucas Hedges addiction dramedyBen Is Backalso doesnt help.)
Is there anyone else out there Disney wants to plug?
Reader, I do not envy the people opening that envelope.
