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What actually should win?

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Thats what were here to determine.

Todays focus: Variety Series.

Theres a reason why Jimmy Fallon wasnt nominated at all.

I dont necessarily expectTrevor Noah & Co.to be the victors, though.

(SeeBees hour-long special devoted to Puerto Ricosix months after Hurricane Maria.)

The Emmy will go to …Last Week Tonight With John Oliver, for the reasons I just suggested.

That said, if Bee or Kimmel pulls off an upset, I wont betotallyshocked.

Which is, you know, a lot.

Hes also the host who most surprises me with his inventively sly jabs at the Establishment.

But I think voters will be more inclined to honor something thats more purely a sketch series.

Its never won and I doubt that will change in 2018.

No one, dammit.

SincePortlandias eighth season was its last, this is the final chance to give it an Emmy.

But theSaturday Night Livejuggernaut stands in its way.

More importantly, Emmy voters have an obvious soft spot for the Godfather of American Sketch Comedy Shows.

With all that hardware in its favor, its hard to imagine it losing.

That doesnt mean this win is a done deal, but itssoa done deal.

Her acceptance speech also would undoubtedly be memorable and weird.

If it does, expect Twitter to boil over and straight-up explode.

That doesnt bode well forEquanimityorJerry Seinfeld: Jerry Before Seinfeld.

But neither it nor any of the others seem like as daunting a task as directing The Oscars.

Hell do so again this year.

The Emmy will go to … (Thats a weird sounding sentence, isnt it?)

The Emmy should go to …

Meanwhile, Mulaney is simply one of the smartest comics currently working.

Hishorse in the hospital routineinKid Gorgeousis a Trump take for the ages.

Everything in this special is written with drone-strike precision.

The Emmy will go to …Full Frontal With Samantha Bee Presents: The Great American* Puerto Rico.

The Emmy should go to …This is really, really hard.

I do think Bees special performed a valuable service, in addition to being funny.

But this Emmy is specifically about the quality of the writing.

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